Fri, Nov 26, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 211 | 012 | 433 |
| SJS | 18 | 011 | 016 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:44SJSNick BoninoAssists: Noah Gregor, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 5:16TORWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: David Kampf, Nick Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 10:44TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:48TORNick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:48SJSJasper Weatherby: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:42TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:34TORJoseph Woll: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:27TORNick Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:03SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:26SJSJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews9:43
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:02
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Ritchie – Kampf7:56
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Engvall – Semyonov4:47
xG 0.03–0.25 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin11:08
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:15
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:29
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Labanc – Weatherby6:12
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Gregor – Barabanov9:52
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Bonino – Gadjovich7:42
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Balcers10:01
xG 0.28–0.65 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek11:21
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Simek2:01
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro15:12
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).