Sat, Nov 27, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 112 | 112 | 228 |
| COL | 214 | 112 | 39 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:37COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 4:44NSHLuke KuninAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:19COLBowen ByramGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:42COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 15:12COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nazem Kadri, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 16:28NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 18:55COLTyson JostAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:57NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:20NSHEeli Tolvanen: Holding2 min
- P1 17:03NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36NSHNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:36COLNazem Kadri: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:29NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:53NSHMattias Ekholm: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:53COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:53COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:53COLGabriel Landeskog: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:01COLJayson Megna: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rantanen won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Kunin – Tolvanen7:15
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino8:12
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:15
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:54
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier11:03
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Josi – Carrier2:11
xG 0.02–0.01 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro12:25
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor5:44
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Kadri – Landeskog – Rantanen2:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Jost – Newhook7:03
xG 0.00–0.08 (2%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin5:51
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram4:36
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram7:55
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar6:12
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).