Sat, Nov 27, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 111 | 011 | 232 |
| LAK | 120 | 211 | 16 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Sean Durzi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:41OTTMichael Del ZottoAssists: Josh Norris · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:23LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 13:14LAKArthur KaliyevGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Mikey Anderson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 18:33OTTConnor BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:26LAKCarl GrundstromENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alexander Edler · Backhand, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:56OTTMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:27OTTDylan Gambrell: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:27LAKAdrian Kempe: Embellishment2 min
- P1 8:57OTTZachary Sanford: Interference2 min
- P1 11:49OTTNikita Zaitsev: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:30OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:51LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:51OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:51LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:51OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:51LAKBrendan Lemieux: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Tierney – Formenton5:05
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Tkachuk – Stützle12:13
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Paul – Sanford – Norris7:56
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ennis – Paul – Norris2:17
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holden – Chabot2:01
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Mete – Zaitsev11:46
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub15:42
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Iafallo11:42
xG 0.80–0.50 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Kempe3:04
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev7:10
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Brown – Moore – Andersson4:06
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Roy16:05
xG 1.33–0.61 (69%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Maatta – Durzi10:16
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Bjornfot15:16
xG 0.15–0.51 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).