Sun, Nov 28, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 211 | 27 | 425 |
| CAR | 010 | 09 | 213 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:58WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 12:57WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 6:22CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 13:32CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Martin Necas, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 17:05WSHDmitry OrlovPPGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:19WSHJohn CarlsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:38WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:49WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P2 0:40CARTeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:09CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P2 18:19WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:19CARBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:46CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P3 11:30WSHMartin Fehérváry: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:00CARSeth Jarvis: Holding2 min
- P3 15:30CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Protas13:09
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Sgarbossa – Malenstyn – Leason5:30
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Wilson – McMichael8:57
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:14
xG 0.56–0.97 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Orlov2:13
xG 0.02–0.01 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:56
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Cholowski11:01
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Svechnikov10:40
xG 1.18–0.25 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Martinook – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi7:01
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Jarvis7:24
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas11:35
xG 0.64–0.87 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo11:03
xG 0.86–0.10 (90%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce13:57
xG 1.10–0.99 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Cole – Smith10:45
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).