Mon, Nov 29, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Seattle Kraken 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 312 | 214 | 26 | 732 |
| BUF | 011 | 212 | 213 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47SEACarson SoucySHAssists: Yanni Gourde · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:40SEABrandon TanevSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 19:04SEAJared McCannAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 1:53BUFBrett MurrayAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P2 7:59SEAJared McCannAssists: Morgan Geekie, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 17:27BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 18:09SEAMason AppletonGWGAssists: Will Borgen, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–2
- P3 0:37BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 13:44SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Yanni Gourde, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.18 xG6–3
- P3 18:27BUFDylan CozensAssists: Kyle Okposo, Brett Murray · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–4
- P3 19:35SEAMason AppletonENAssists: Brandon Tanev, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.77 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:31SEAHaydn Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:14SEARyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:07SEAJaden Schwartz: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Donskoi – Donato5:43
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McCann – Tanev – Geekie10:52
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Schwartz – Donskoi – Gourde3:30
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Gourde – Donato2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Soucy13:44
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Fleury2:07
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Fleury – Borgen13:29
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Hinostroza – Hayden7:13
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Murray – Cozens12:43
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson13:00
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Girgensons – Hayden – Bjork2:26
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hagg6:06
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Butcher8:20
xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Miller – Butcher2:18
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).