Mon, Nov 29, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 07 | 16 | 01 | 1 | 122 |
| CGY | 010 | 111 | 09 | 02 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:44CGYMilan LucicAssists: Oliver Kylington, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 12:35PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 2. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
- 6. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 7. CGY Andrew Mangiapane stopped
- 8. PIT Jeff Carter stopped
- 9. CGY Elias Lindholm stopped
- 10. PIT Evan Rodrigues stopped
- 11. CGY Oliver Kylington stopped
- 12. PIT Kasperi Kapanen stopped
- 13. CGY Mikael Backlund scored
- 14. PIT Brock McGinn stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:51PITChad Ruhwedel: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:51CGYBlake Coleman: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:28CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Lafferty – Heinen – Aston-Reese2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Heinen – Simon5:23
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Kapanen – Aston-Reese3:02
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – McGinn6:01
xG 0.04–0.24 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Ruhwedel6:58
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel3:11
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson3:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk15:15
xG 1.32–0.24 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Monahan – Dube13:04
xG 0.90–0.09 (91%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane14:15
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Lucic10:29
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson20:04
xG 1.39–0.45 (76%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov15:32
xG 1.03–0.33 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington19:41
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).