Tue, Nov 30, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 15 | 16 | 216 |
| BOS | 08 | 017 | 117 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:03DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Pius Suter · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 6:20BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 11:33DETMarc StaalGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Gustav Lindstrom · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 17:22BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:22DETVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding2 min
- P3 4:24DETGustav Lindstrom: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:23DETMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23BOSCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frederic won the faceoff against Rowney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Fabbri – Smith – Suter6:51
xG 0.11–0.14 (46%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Zadina6:40
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen9:13
xG 0.09–0.64 (13%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:33
xG 0.35–1.01 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Lindstrom12:53
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Leddy – Seider2:04
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Seider15:02
xG 0.33–0.82 (29%)attempts 4–19goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Hall – Pastrnak14:26
xG 1.30–0.28 (82%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Lazar – DeBrusk7:02
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Smith – Coyle11:28
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Nosek – Frederic – Kuhlman7:22
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zboril12:13
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–0goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo10:44
xG 0.59–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy7:32
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).