Tue, Nov 30, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 4, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 213 | 02 | 427 |
| FLA | 115 | 09 | 427 | 551 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Nick Jensen, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:03WSHBeck MalenstynAssists: Brett Leason, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 6:55FLAJoe ThorntonAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 6:40WSHLars EllerAssists: Tom Wilson, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 12:40WSHNick JensenAssists: Carl Hagelin, Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 3:23FLARyan LombergAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 6:09FLAEetu LuostarinenSHAssists: Ryan Lomberg, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 12:01FLASam BennettPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.33 xG4–4
- P3 19:45FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:38FLAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:35FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:35WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:35WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:35FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:03WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:36FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:18WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 11:27WSHDennis Cholowski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:03WSHBeck Malenstyn: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Wilson – McMichael11:13
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Sgarbossa – Malenstyn – Leason6:49
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:45
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Protas12:37
xG 0.53–0.84 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen14:56
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Cholowski12:46
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:47
xG 0.70–2.20 (24%)attempts 12–26goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen9:53
xG 1.15–0.45 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Vatrano – Tippett3:53
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Verhaeghe – Bennett9:35
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Mamin – Lundell6:10
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad16:57
xG 1.93–0.56 (78%)attempts 25–13goals 2–1
- Montour – Carlsson13:16
xG 1.37–0.34 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Gudas – Weegar2:24
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).