Tue, Jan 18, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 17 | 19 | 06 | 1 | 431 |
| PHI | 112 | 114 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08NYIRobin SaloAssists: Mathew Barzal, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:39PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cam York, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P2 13:28NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 13:54PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 4:05PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Cam Atkinson, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:32NYICasey CizikasAssists: Scott Mayfield, Cal Clutterbuck · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 2. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 5. PHI Cam Atkinson stopped
- 6. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 7. PHI Joel Farabee stopped
- 8. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 9. PHI Scott Laughton stopped
- 10. NYI Kieffer Bellows stopped
- 11. PHI Morgan Frost stopped
- 12. NYI Noah Dobson stopped
- 13. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 14. NYI Zach Parise stopped
- 15. PHI Gerry Mayhew stopped
- 16. NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau stopped
- 17. PHI Ivan Provorov stopped
- 18. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:14PHIJoel Farabee: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:43NYIRobin Salo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37NYIBrock Nelson: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:33NYIZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:32NYIZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:32PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:14PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier3:02
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:28
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Pageau – Bellows – Wahlstrom8:07
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:21
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Mayfield2:36
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech12:19
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Salo – Dobson3:50
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Atkinson – Farabee11:23
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny12:12
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Willman – Bunnaman – MacEwen6:16
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lindblom – Mayhew2:11
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov15:16
xG 0.94–0.33 (74%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:37
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ristolainen6:22
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).