Tue, Nov 30, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 314 | 09 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 333 |
| STL | 013 | 210 | 110 | 00 | 1 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 5:24TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 5:29TBLErik CernakAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Ross Colton · Slap, 0.00 xG3–0
- P2 3:15STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 6:13STLLogan BrownAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 1:11STLIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Scott Perunovich, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 3. STL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 4. TBL Corey Perry stopped
- 5. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 6. TBL Ross Colton stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:23STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:32TBLPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:32TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:53TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53STLNiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:27TBLErik Cernak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:58STLScott Perunovich: Interference2 min
- OT 0:46STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare12:30
xG 0.83–0.38 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton6:03
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli13:33
xG 0.41–0.75 (35%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta8:55
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Hedman3:18
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote2:10
xG 0.10–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas10:01
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Kyrou11:53
xG 0.49–0.78 (38%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Saad – Sundqvist – Barbashev11:32
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Mikkola3:42
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Parayko2:48
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug7:51
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).