Tue, Nov 30, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 010 | 117 | 140 |
| DAL | 17 | 15 | 25 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 14:57DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 9:31DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 16:27CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 17:10DALRoope HintzENAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:37DALJason Robertson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 7:01CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:54DALJoel Kiviranta: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:43CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Embellishment2 min
- P1 14:43DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:39CARTeuvo Teravainen: Holding2 min
- P3 13:54DALDenis Gurianov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Svechnikov – Jarvis4:39
xG 0.72–0.05 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas8:59
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Jarvis3:33
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Martinook – Kotkaniemi3:49
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–1goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Slavin16:12
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 25–11goals 1–2
- Chatfield – Lajoie5:52
xG 0.81–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Chatfield9:44
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:10
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov3:07
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Raffl – Gurianov5:30
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Seguin – Glendening – Kiviranta5:02
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Heiskanen2:37
xG 0.02–0.04 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen14:29
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
- Suter – Klingberg15:23
xG 0.55–1.04 (34%)attempts 12–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).