Thu, Dec 2, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 29 | 212 | 434 |
| MTL | 04 | 19 | 07 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:11COLValeri NichushkinSHAssists: Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 6:51MTLBen ChiarotPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 15:49COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 2:31COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 17:11COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:46COLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:48COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:08MTLBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:00COLTyson Jost: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:22COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14MTLRyan Poehling: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:34MTLDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P3 13:59COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:45COLTyson Jost: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:45MTLAlexander Romanov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Newhook won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin6:07
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:33
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Aube-Kubel – O'Connor – Newhook4:39
xG 0.01–0.22 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard3:57
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar10:31
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Anderson – Dvorak2:51
xG 0.29–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Pezzetta – Caufield4:51
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Dvorak – Caufield2:26
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Drouin – Dvorak2:38
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Kulak12:26
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Wideman – Romanov9:09
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Savard – Chiarot15:13
xG 0.13–0.57 (19%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).