Thu, Dec 2, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 210 | 011 | 231 |
| MIN | 213 | 213 | 112 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:49MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kaapo Kahkonen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:09MINRem PitlickAssists: Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:28MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 2:52NJDRyan GravesAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Michael McLeod · Slap, 0.00 xG1–3
- P2 7:40NJDTomas TatarAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 10:27MINDmitry KulikovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
- P3 16:05MINRyan HartmanAssists: Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:37NJDJonas Siegenthaler: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:12MINNico Sturm: Holding2 min
- P2 12:33MINRem Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:50NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:53MINBrandon Duhaime: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:16NJDAndreas Johnsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:16MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:16NJDAndreas Johnsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:12NJDDawson Mercer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Mercer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Vesey – Sharangovich6:30
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Bratt – Mercer11:00
xG 1.10–1.06 (51%)attempts 14–22goals 0–2
- Geertsen – Bastian – McLeod4:26
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Zacha – Hischier – Hughes11:26
xG 0.16–0.72 (18%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – Graves8:53
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 2–3
- Hamilton – Smith4:47
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Siegenthaler2:16
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:25
xG 1.30–0.52 (72%)attempts 20–7goals 4–0
- Rask – Fiala – Pitlick8:54
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm8:15
xG 0.09–0.61 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:26
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:10
xG 0.98–0.64 (60%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Merrill13:10
xG 0.91–0.91 (50%)attempts 18–16goals 4–1
- Benn – Kulikov12:55
xG 0.51–0.69 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).