Thu, Dec 2, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 213 | 111 | 08 | 332 |
| LAK | 114 | 115 | 013 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Alexander Edler, Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 11:19CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 16:28CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 4:54CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 18:11LAKAlexander EdlerAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:58LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04LAKCarl Grundstrom: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:18CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:54LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:43CGYChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:24LAKAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:50
xG 1.37–0.66 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:28
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Monahan – Dube8:45
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Lucic7:24
xG 0.14–0.80 (15%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Zadorov14:30
xG 0.74–0.87 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:30
xG 1.08–1.25 (47%)attempts 14–26goals 0–1
- Tanev – Kylington16:18
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Iafallo11:00
xG 1.12–0.29 (79%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Moore – Kupari – Kaliyev3:38
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Lizotte – Kaliyev5:15
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Andersson – Kupari2:43
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Roy15:20
xG 1.21–0.87 (58%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:17
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Durzi – Bjornfot12:31
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).