Fri, Dec 3, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 4, Winnipeg Jets 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 214 | 011 | 437 |
| WPG | 312 | 320 | 28 | 840 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:52WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 7:39WPGKristian VesalainenAssists: Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.33 xG0–3
- P1 9:08NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Ty Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 19:36NJDJack HughesAssists: Ryan Graves, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P2 0:37NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 1:16NJDRyan GravesAssists: Janne Kuokkanen, Jesper Boqvist · Slap, 0.15 xG4–3
- P2 10:39WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P2 15:26WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
- P2 19:54WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Neal Pionk, Connor Hellebuyck · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 9:36WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG4–7
- P3 16:33WPGAdam LowryAssists: Logan Stanley, Jansen Harkins · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:46WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:10NJDJonas Siegenthaler: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:40NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20NJDMichael McLeod: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:58WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:13NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier11:58
xG 1.19–0.50 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Tatar – Kuokkanen – Boqvist6:12
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Hughes – Mercer9:06
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod7:02
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler11:42
xG 1.23–0.49 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Hamilton – Smith4:36
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Subban – Siegenthaler2:33
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Lowry – Vesalainen8:36
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:40
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 3–2
- Copp – Ehlers – Dubois11:18
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Toninato – Harkins – Svechnikov5:34
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley13:25
xG 1.07–0.72 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Dillon – Pionk16:54
xG 1.14–0.96 (54%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Morrissey14:09
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).