Fri, Dec 3, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 312 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 436 |
| ANA | 014 | 28 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:54ANASonny MilanoAssists: Josh Manson, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:49CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Sean Monahan, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 10:20CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:10CGYSean MonahanAssists: Trevor Lewis, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 19:24ANARickard RakellAssists: Isac Lundeström, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 2:04ANAVinni LettieriPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Trevor Zegras stopped
- 2. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
- 3. ANA Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:19CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:50CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12ANAJakob Silfverberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:23CGYErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:36ANATrevor Zegras: Interference2 min
- P3 10:36CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk15:19
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Monahan13:35
xG 0.93–0.92 (50%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
- Richardson – Pitlick – Dube4:47
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane13:40
xG 0.36–0.90 (29%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson16:23
xG 1.07–0.31 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Tanev – Kylington16:47
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:36
xG 0.55–1.40 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Milano – Zegras12:12
xG 1.21–0.87 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Henrique – Terry – Steel7:10
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Lettieri6:22
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Terry – Steel2:00
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit12:07
xG 0.85–0.66 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Drysdale17:16
xG 0.83–1.01 (45%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Fowler – Manson16:55
xG 0.61–1.01 (38%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).