Sat, Dec 4, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 19 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 325 |
| FLA | 117 | 119 | 114 | 01 | 2 | 451 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24STLLogan BrownAssists: Dakota Joshua, Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:04FLAMaxim MaminAssists: Lucas Carlsson, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:36STLJake WalmanAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 18:00FLASam ReinhartAssists: Lucas Carlsson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 4:29STLBrandon SaadAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 17:26FLAMaxim MaminAssists: Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Anton Lundell scored
- 2. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 3. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 4. STL Logan Brown scored
- 5. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
- 6. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:18STLScott Perunovich: Interference2 min
- P2 5:18FLARyan Lomberg: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:41STLScott Perunovich: Holding2 min
- P2 15:13FLARadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:15STLMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:58STLTorey Krug: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 3:03STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Joshua – Brown3:27
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Saad – Sundqvist12:34
xG 0.39–1.08 (27%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas8:39
xG 0.00–1.02 (0%)attempts 1–15goals 0–2
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou10:19
xG 0.26–1.52 (15%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Krug4:59
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola2:20
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug3:27
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett13:16
xG 1.26–0.24 (84%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:18
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Vatrano – Tippett8:36
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Mamin – Lundell10:15
xG 0.57–0.96 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Carlsson12:36
xG 2.27–0.55 (80%)attempts 25–5goals 2–0
- Weegar – Ekblad18:46
xG 1.45–0.46 (76%)attempts 31–7goals 0–1
- Montour – Carlsson3:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).