Sat, Dec 4, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 112 | 013 | 234 |
| CAR | 213 | 36 | 110 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 13:59CARMartin NecasAssists: Seth Jarvis, Vincent Trocheck · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:28BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 3:44CARIan ColeGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 4:08CARVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 11:42CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
- P2 19:34BUFZemgus GirgensonsPPAssists: Jacob Bryson, Kyle Okposo · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 1:09CARTeuvo TeravainenSHAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.34 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:47CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:47CARVincent Trocheck: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 17:47CARVincent Trocheck: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Murray – Cozens10:54
xG 1.50–0.67 (69%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:50
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Bjork11:31
xG 0.18–0.40 (32%)attempts 10–7goals 0–3
- Girgensons – Asplund – Mittelstadt12:58
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Dahlin17:24
xG 1.82–0.83 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Jokiharju – Bryson15:57
xG 0.89–0.85 (51%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
- Miller – Butcher14:38
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Lorentz10:23
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Stepan – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis2:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis2:41
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Necas – Kotkaniemi2:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Slavin13:40
xG 0.75–0.49 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Skjei – Chatfield13:42
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Smith – Lajoie4:05
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).