Sat, Dec 4, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 29 | 12 | 03 | 323 |
| NSH | 112 | 112 | 117 | 13 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Luke Kunin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:48MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Chris Wideman, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:01MTLChristian DvorakAssists: David Savard, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 17:24NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 3:10MTLBrett KulakAssists: Cole Caufield, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 10:12NSHLuke KuninAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 4:48NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:28MTLMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:27MTLDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P1 12:21NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:50MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:59NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:59MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:11NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:01NSHNick Cousins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:57NSHAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:57MTLMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:39NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:39MTLBrett Kulak: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:47MTLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Dvorak – Caufield5:12
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lehkonen – Pezzetta2:19
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Evans – Suzuki8:41
xG 0.09–0.47 (15%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Poehling7:22
xG 0.15–0.96 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Norlinder7:43
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Wideman – Kulak3:37
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Kulak3:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:06
xG 1.67–0.13 (93%)attempts 23–4goals 0–1
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino8:52
xG 0.53–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:31
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen6:48
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:36
xG 0.87–0.14 (86%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning5:46
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Benning4:05
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).