Sat, Dec 4, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 322 | 110 | 444 |
| VAN | 07 | 15 | 011 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:19PITJake GuentzelAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 6:18VANVasily PodkolzinAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brock Boeser · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:13PITJake GuentzelPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 18:23PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 11:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:54VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:17PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:16PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:58VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:11VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:14VANTyler Myers: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 16:45VANTyler Motte: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:05VANTucker Poolman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:23VANConor Garland: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:05PITJohn Marino: Interference2 min
- P3 19:58VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58PITJohn Marino: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues13:16
xG 0.99–0.21 (83%)attempts 23–6goals 2–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Kapanen9:02
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Simon – Aston-Reese – O'Connor6:25
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – Heinen10:09
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin12:48
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Matheson – Marino2:31
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel9:33
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson5:21
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Horvat – Garland – Podkolzin2:29
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Dowling – Pettersson – Hoglander4:21
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Garland5:38
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Hughes3:46
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Poolman – Hughes2:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes11:09
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).