Sun, Dec 5, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 09 | 28 | 225 |
| VGK | 110 | 09 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:06VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 1:49VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Shea Theodore, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 9:19CGYElias LindholmAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 10:45VGKEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 17:19CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:09CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:16CGYChris Tanev: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:28VGKDylan Coghlan: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:04VGKShea Theodore: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:07
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane11:00
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Richardson – Dube – Ruzicka5:58
xG 0.03–0.52 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Monahan9:22
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hanifin – Andersson14:15
xG 0.61–0.89 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Stone – Gudbranson12:46
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington16:09
xG 0.11–0.94 (11%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Kolesar9:24
xG 0.68–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Janmark – Roy8:59
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:36
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson12:53
xG 0.80–0.78 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Coghlan9:42
xG 0.97–0.08 (92%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud14:14
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud2:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).