Mon, Dec 6, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 7, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 414 | 117 | 219 | 750 |
| PHI | 38 | 013 | 211 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Morgan Frost, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:56COLErik JohnsonSHAssists: Logan O'Connor, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 13:13COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 15:16COLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P1 15:42COLCale MakarPPAssists: Justus Annunen, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P1 16:28PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P1 18:20PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 1:42COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 2:16PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Kevin Hayes, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–4
- P3 5:42COLNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–4
- P3 11:35COLTyson JostAssists: Jayson Megna · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–4
- P3 18:35PHIScott LaughtonSHAssists: Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.20 xG7–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:59COLTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:28PHIOskar Lindblom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:24PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:19COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09COLLogan O'Connor: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:54PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:34PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:42PHIMax Willman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Newhook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:20
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin5:02
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Helm – Megna – Jost2:49
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – O'Connor – Newhook7:19
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:31
xG 1.14–0.34 (77%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard6:17
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard4:32
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Hayes – Laughton7:35
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Frost10:48
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Brown – Willman – MacEwen8:26
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny12:00
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim16:54
xG 1.11–0.79 (58%)attempts 24–17goals 3–1
- Yandle – Seeler10:27
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Braun – Provorov14:46
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).