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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 6, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Los Angeles Kings 0, Vancouver Canucks 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.

VAN winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK01101208031
VAN01221028430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:17VANBrock BoeserPPGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:43VANConor GarlandAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Elias Pettersson · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P3 6:59VANJuho LammikkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P3 12:48VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 1:48LAKMikey Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 7:44LAKViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 14:49VANTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 16:43LAKPhillip Danault: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  5. P2 18:53VANTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
  6. P3 4:35LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
  7. P3 12:09LAKLias Andersson: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
48% to win52% to win
← LAK attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Miller
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKVAN
31Shots on goal30
2.0Expected goals3.7
50Shot attempts60
27Faceoffs won30
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
17Hits31
14Blocked shots11
7Giveaways10
5Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestDanault – Arvidsson – Iafallo8:23

    xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0

  2. Moore – Kupari – Kaliyev7:52

    xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0

  3. Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo2:12

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  4. Tynan – Grundstrom – Kaliyev2:19

    xG 0.00–0.08 (5%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Durzi – Bjornfot12:30

    xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

  2. Edler – Roy15:23

    xG 0.61–0.70 (46%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0

  3. Doughty – Anderson16:01

    xG 0.63–0.85 (43%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestGarland – Pettersson – Podkolzin10:12

    xG 0.97–0.31 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  2. Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander10:53

    xG 1.00–0.49 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0

  3. Miller – Dickinson – Boeser11:09

    xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0

  4. Chiasson – Motte – Lammikko6:36

    xG 0.02–0.41 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson13:58

    xG 1.38–0.39 (78%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0

  2. Hamonic – Hughes16:07

    xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0

  3. Schenn – Poolman13:19

    xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.7 xGLAK 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1269 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.

VAN winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).