Tue, Dec 7, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 112 | 311 | 432 |
| TOR | 318 | 212 | 010 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:08TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 16:30TORNick RitchieAssists: Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 11:39CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:34TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 18:41TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 0:33CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jake Bean, Gregory Hofmann · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 16:25CBJSean KuralyAssists: Alexandre Texier, Eric Robinson · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 19:59CBJMax DomiAssists: Jakub Voracek, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:30CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:43CBJMax Domi: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 12:52TORMichael Bunting: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:16TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:25CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHofmann – Jenner – Bjorkstrand6:16
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Hofmann – Danforth – Sillinger5:25
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Danforth – Sillinger5:56
xG 0.04–0.07 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Texier – Robinson7:51
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Bean15:56
xG 1.16–0.93 (55%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Werenski – Boqvist2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Boqvist9:50
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Kase – Kampf9:19
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Clifford – Engvall – Steeves7:21
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Bunting – Matthews13:36
xG 0.62–0.61 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:50
xG 0.55–0.66 (46%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl16:32
xG 1.05–0.19 (85%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Rubins – Liljegren12:06
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly18:02
xG 0.83–1.15 (42%)attempts 15–32goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).