Tue, Dec 7, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 011 | 29 | 327 |
| MTL | 09 | 26 | 08 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31TBLPatrick MaroonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 4:20MTLNick SuzukiAssists: David Savard, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 7:08MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Mike Hoffman, Nick Suzuki · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 17:51TBLCorey PerryAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 19:22TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:16TBLBoris Katchouk: Holding2 min
- P1 16:15MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P2 14:57MTLAlexander Romanov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:57MTLAlexander Romanov: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57TBLZach Bogosian: Instigator2 min
- P2 14:57TBLZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57TBLZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:12MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:23MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare7:34
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Fortier7:26
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli2:01
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph6:57
xG 0.29–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta11:19
xG 0.76–0.48 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian9:28
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:44
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Evans – Poehling6:08
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Dvorak – Evans4:36
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Perreault – Poehling – Caufield3:26
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Paquette – Dauphin – Pezzetta3:34
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Chiarot16:38
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Wideman – Clague2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kulak – Romanov6:15
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).