Tue, Dec 7, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 03 | 39 | 215 | 527 |
| OTT | 09 | 113 | 211 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:00NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Scott Mayfield · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 9:44OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:06NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Kieffer Bellows, Austin Czarnik · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:33NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 6:26NYIKieffer BellowsGWGAssists: Austin Czarnik, Oliver Wahlstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 8:11OTTNick HoldenAssists: Tim Stützle, Alex Formenton · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 12:26NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–2
- P3 15:54OTTAlex FormentonSHAssists: Connor Brown · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:08NYIZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:03NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34OTTDillon Heatherington: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:12NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 18:36OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36NYINoah Dobson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36NYINoah Dobson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21NYICal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:21OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Pageau – Beauvillier6:44
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Czarnik – Bellows – Wahlstrom5:14
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Parise – Clutterbuck – Johnston4:41
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal8:12
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech12:33
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Greene – Dobson9:06
xG 0.32–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Chara – Greene2:16
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Paul – Gambrell3:13
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – Stützle6:33
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle3:36
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell4:20
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev2:26
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Zub11:48
xG 0.22–0.25 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Heatherington – Thomson7:32
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).