Tue, Dec 7, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 120 | 18 | 112 | 00 | 340 |
| STL | 05 | 215 | 19 | 11 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Maxim Mamin, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:20STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:12FLABrandon MontourAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Maxim Mamin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 13:34STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 6:48STLBrandon SaadAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Logan Brown · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 14:28FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Radko Gudas, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:53STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Jordan Kyrou · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:08STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:32STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
- P1 19:58STLNiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:16FLABrandon Montour: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 13:16STLOskar Sundqvist: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:01FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:25FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:14STLIvan Barbashev: Holding2 min
- P3 4:44FLAOwen Tippett: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:51STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 9:28FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin8:00
xG 0.90–0.11 (89%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen6:23
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett10:06
xG 0.71–0.57 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Vatrano – Tippett – Lundell5:03
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad12:45
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling13:32
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Montour – Carlsson8:46
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Saad – Kyrou3:41
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev2:33
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Brown4:12
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou2:37
xG 0.07–0.41 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Krug7:19
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Krug – Parayko3:17
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Scandella – Parayko5:00
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).