Tue, Dec 7, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 06 | 210 | 426 |
| EDM | 010 | 120 | 09 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 7:14MINMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 6:34EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 5:33MINVictor RaskAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 14:57MINDmitry KulikovAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:33EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:50MINDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P1 12:17MINRem Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:54MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:12EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:35MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:26MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:26
xG 0.52–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:28
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Pitlick – Sturm2:39
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Rask – Fiala – Duhaime2:03
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulikov15:04
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Merrill11:31
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:34
xG 0.86–1.53 (36%)attempts 10–26goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Foegele – McLeod10:06
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:00
xG 1.30–1.13 (53%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Shore – Ryan7:26
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:16
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard19:40
xG 1.65–1.12 (60%)attempts 30–12goals 0–1
- Russell – Broberg9:03
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Barrie – Niemelainen14:11
xG 0.62–0.97 (39%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).