Tue, Dec 7, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 212 | 116 | 015 | 343 |
| SJS | 18 | 314 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37CGYDillon DubeAssists: Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:58SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 11:55CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 4:31CGYAdam RuzickaAssists: Chris Tanev, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 10:08SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Logan Couture, Jasper Weatherby · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 14:27SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jonathan Dahlen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 18:10SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 19:18SJSTomas HertlENAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:06CGYErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:20SJSJonathan Dahlen: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:56SJSErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:16CGYNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:32SJSNicolas Meloche: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:41
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube13:27
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Ruzicka7:34
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:44
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson17:22
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin2:05
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:51
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto10:17
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Dahlen11:38
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Pederson – Gadjovich – Weatherby7:22
xG 0.18–0.58 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Hertl – Gregor – Barabanov11:27
xG 0.37–0.80 (32%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Meloche12:17
xG 0.52–0.60 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Burns – Ferraro18:18
xG 0.61–1.02 (37%)attempts 16–24goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Middleton18:33
xG 0.39–0.86 (31%)attempts 16–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).