Wed, Dec 8, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 7, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 119 | 513 | 17 | 739 |
| NYR | 29 | 013 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nazem Kadri, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:56NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Reaves · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:15NYRNils LundkvistPPAssists: Filip Chytil, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 4:48COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 6:11COLNazem KadriAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 10:42COLAlex NewhookPPGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 17:14COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Nazem Kadri, Kurtis MacDermid · Snap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P2 17:36COLLogan O'ConnorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–2
- P3 11:52NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 13:25COLMikko RantanenAssists: Erik Johnson, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG7–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:27COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:03NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:11COLJacob MacDonald: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:00NYRRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:13NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:13COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:13COLGabriel Landeskog: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:32NYRRyan Lindgren: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:13NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:03NYRPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:11COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:11COLSamuel Girard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:11NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:11COLKurtis MacDermid: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:33COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – O'Connor5:34
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Nichushkin – Rantanen2:42
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Burakovsky – Newhook2:44
xG 0.03–0.05 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar2:33
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard5:24
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – MacDonald5:56
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière4:06
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko4:11
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin6:20
xG 0.10–0.24 (28%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Rooney5:57
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Lindgren2:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller8:49
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Lundkvist5:38
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).