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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 8, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Boston Bruins 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.

VAN winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS0809116030136
VAN0818013032232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 15:01VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P3 4:51BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie Coyle · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
  2. 2. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  3. 3. VAN J.T. Miller scored
  4. 4. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
  5. 5. VAN Bo Horvat scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:30BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
  2. P1 19:57BOSNick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P2 8:14VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  4. P2 14:27BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 3:26VANJuho Lammikko: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P3 4:42VANJ.T. Miller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P3 7:22VANTanner Pearson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 7:36BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
48% to win52% to win
← BOS attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Horvat
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSVAN
36Shots on goal32
3.9Expected goals2.3
62Shot attempts70
35Faceoffs won32
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
28Hits20
19Blocked shots15
6Giveaways11
3Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:59

    xG 0.97–0.08 (92%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0

  2. Foligno – Haula – Frederic4:50

    xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  3. Lazar – DeBrusk – Steen4:51

    xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  4. Smith – Haula – Coyle2:56

    xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy3:41

    xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

  2. Grzelcyk – Carlo8:20

    xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0

  3. Reilly – Carlo3:15

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestMiller – Pearson – Boeser12:51

    xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0

  2. Garland – Pettersson – Podkolzin10:14

    xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0

  3. Chiasson – Motte – Lammikko5:29

    xG 0.01–0.15 (7%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  4. Dickinson – Horvat – Hoglander12:51

    xG 0.30–0.88 (25%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPoolman – Hughes6:07

    xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0

  2. Schenn – Myers13:49

    xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0

  3. Hamonic – Hughes8:46

    xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.3 xGBOS 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #763 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.

VAN winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).