Thu, Dec 9, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
Nashville Predators 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 08 | 210 | 429 |
| NYI | 16 | 18 | 17 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48NYIAustin CzarnikAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Kieffer Bellows · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:28NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Luke Kunin · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 18:52NSHColton SissonsAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 1:56NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Oliver Wahlstrom · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 5:08NYINoah DobsonAssists: Andy Greene, Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:31NSHYakov TreninAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Colton Sissons · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 19:48NSHEeli TolvanenGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:18NYIZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:18NSHYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:18NYIZdeno Chara: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:39NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Novak – Tomasino11:08
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen12:44
xG 1.01–0.73 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:56
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg14:40
xG 0.26–0.82 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier13:31
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro18:22
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Benning11:18
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal13:34
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Pageau – Bellows8:14
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Czarnik – Wahlstrom3:29
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Clutterbuck – Johnston8:49
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech18:26
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Greene – Mayfield2:19
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Dobson4:00
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).