Thu, Dec 9, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 2, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 19 | 113 | 231 |
| STL | 210 | 18 | 38 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17STLNathan WalkerAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:47STLNathan WalkerAssists: Niko Mikkola, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 4:17DETRobby FabbriAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:01STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Dakota Joshua, Niko Mikkola · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 9:27STLNathan WalkerAssists: Torey Krug, Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 10:11STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Torey Krug, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 15:27DETRobby FabbriAssists: Lucas Raymond, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 19:54STLMarco ScandellaENAssists: Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:04DETNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P1 14:25DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:04DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:01STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Suter – Veleno7:55
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Gagner – Rowney – Smith4:43
xG 0.10–0.21 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina7:16
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Larkin – Fabbri – Raymond13:59
xG 0.56–0.91 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Renouf10:22
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–1
- Leddy – Hronek14:58
xG 0.82–0.34 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Renouf3:21
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Sundqvist – Walker5:21
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev10:07
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Saad2:11
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Saad – Kyrou9:06
xG 0.09–0.34 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola15:48
xG 0.91–0.69 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Bortuzzo – Perunovich12:30
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella2:32
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).