Thu, Dec 9, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 06 | 08 | 14 | 226 |
| CGY | 010 | 17 | 08 | 02 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:23CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 4:07CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Frederik Andersen, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:01CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:33CARIan Cole: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:00CARJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:14CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:08CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:20CARBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:11CARIan Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:27CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:56CARIan Cole: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Necas – Jarvis2:48
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Jarvis7:10
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Svechnikov7:33
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov2:03
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Slavin13:08
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Smith – Slavin2:13
xG 0.02–0.06 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Chatfield13:17
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Monahan – Dube8:11
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:06
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Ruzicka5:55
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:05
xG 0.19–0.63 (24%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov12:40
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington15:16
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:13
xG 0.13–0.44 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).