Thu, Dec 9, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 28 | 29 | 527 |
| SJS | 09 | 07 | 219 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22MINKevin FialaAssists: Jon Merrill, Brandon Duhaime · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:04MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:20MINJordan GreenwayPPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 3:29SJSJonathan DahlenAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 13:26SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Jonathan Dahlen, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 18:12MINJordan GreenwayENAssists: Ryan Hartman, Joel Eriksson Ek · Backhand, 0.79 xG4–2
- P3 18:44MINKirill KaprizovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:47MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:49SJSJake Middleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:33SJSJake Middleton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:34SJSJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:02MINJordie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:17MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Shaw – Sturm9:04
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:42
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:57
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Rask – Fiala – Duhaime11:04
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:41
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Kulikov14:18
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Merrill16:27
xG 0.64–1.16 (35%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLabanc – Gadjovich – Weatherby9:09
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Dahlen3:32
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Couture – Meier – Dahlen8:25
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto7:13
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro15:00
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Meloche11:54
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Middleton15:43
xG 0.78–0.89 (47%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).