Fri, Dec 10, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 211 | 111 | 433 |
| WSH | 06 | 012 | 213 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:16PITDanton HeinenAssists: John Marino, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 8:37PITBrock McGinnAssists: Mike Matheson, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 11:42PITKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 7:33WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Daniel Sprong · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:14WSHLars EllerAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Conor Sheary · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:07PITJeff CarterENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Tristan Jarry · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 13:09PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00PITJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:11WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Simon – O'Connor4:30
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese14:21
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Carter – Zucker – Heinen12:39
xG 0.26–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Crosby – Kapanen – Rodrigues14:43
xG 0.77–1.03 (43%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel14:39
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin19:30
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Marino14:05
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:34
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sprong3:17
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov3:20
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Malenstyn – Leason – Protas6:37
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:57
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov2:57
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Jensen3:06
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).