Fri, Dec 10, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 211 | 015 | 340 |
| COL | 314 | 315 | 118 | 747 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:10COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Alex Newhook, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 10:49COLDarren HelmAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 19:07DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Pius Suter, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 3:21DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Sam Gagner, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 3:59COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 4:22COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P2 7:33COLSamuel GirardAssists: Tyson Jost, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P2 13:34DETFilip HronekPPAssists: Filip Zadina, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 15:30COLCale MakarENAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:59DETMoritz Seider: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:12COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:45COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:53COLErik Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:34DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:20DETSam Gagner: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:11COLCale Makar: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Namestnikov – Smith – Suter4:52
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina6:45
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Larkin – Fabbri – Raymond11:05
xG 0.81–1.09 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
- Gagner – Rowney – Veleno5:10
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 1–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Renouf11:54
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- DeKeyser – Seider12:42
xG 0.36–0.93 (28%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Leddy – Hronek14:59
xG 0.68–1.52 (31%)attempts 12–25goals 1–4
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:37
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Jost3:39
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – O'Connor9:01
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Compher – Aube-Kubel – Newhook6:27
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard4:38
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson2:22
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar14:08
xG 0.94–0.72 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).