Sat, Dec 11, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 114 | 29 | 435 |
| TOR | 311 | 13 | 112 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Reese Johnson, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 2:54TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 14:32TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Ondrej Kase, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P2 3:25TORPierre EngvallAssists: Kyle Clifford, Alex Steeves · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 16:31CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 1:47CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 10:42CHIJake McCabeAssists: Riley Stillman, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 18:40TORDavid KampfGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:24CHIReese Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:38TORKristians Rubins: Interference2 min
- P1 11:21CHIRiley Stillman: Interference2 min
- P1 14:04CHIRiley Stillman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:00TOROndrej Kase: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:21TORMichael Bunting: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Hagel – Johnson5:54
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Kubalik – Strome – Kurashev5:06
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kurashev – Dach6:04
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat9:22
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones2:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Jones6:09
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Murphy – McCabe6:17
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Kase – Matthews12:00
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:52
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Clifford – Engvall – Steeves6:06
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Ritchie – Kampf8:18
xG 0.11–0.24 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl2:21
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly14:38
xG 0.49–0.38 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Rielly – Liljegren2:00
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).