Sat, Dec 11, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 09 | 013 | 232 |
| NYI | 110 | 27 | 112 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:01NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:45NYINoah DobsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Oliver Wahlstrom · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:25NJDJack HughesAssists: Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:33NYIAndy GreeneAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:33NYIZach PariseSHGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 9:37NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:30NJDMason Geertsen: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 6:30NJDMason Geertsen: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:30NYIZdeno Chara: Instigator2 min
- P1 6:30NYIZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:30NYIZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:38NJDTomas Tatar: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:08NYIZach Parise: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:42NYIRobin Salo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:32NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:28NJDDawson Mercer: Interference2 min
- P3 11:28NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:06NYIZach Parise: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Mercer10:44
xG 1.04–0.48 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Vesey – Geertsen – McLeod2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zacha – Sharangovich – Hughes13:37
xG 0.40–0.61 (40%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Tatar – Kuokkanen – Boqvist7:11
xG 0.02–0.54 (3%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Hamilton3:11
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Subban – Siegenthaler4:25
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Smith9:50
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal12:16
xG 0.86–0.21 (80%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Parise – Pageau – Wahlstrom7:24
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Bellows10:36
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston8:26
xG 0.08–0.83 (9%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salo7:43
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Salo – Dobson4:55
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech3:32
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).