Sat, Dec 11, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 28 | 112 | 427 |
| CGY | 015 | 116 | 111 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:43BOSConnor CliftonAssists: Trent Frederic, Anton Blidh · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:52BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 6:48BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 12:19CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 2:57BOSCurtis LazarAssists: Trent Frederic, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P3 18:24CGYSean MonahanAssists: Milan Lucic, Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:32BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:50CGYSean Monahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:55BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:12BOSAnton Blidh: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:20BOSTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:18CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:32
xG 1.16–0.48 (71%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Blidh – Lazar – Frederic5:38
xG 0.67–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Smith – Coyle – Hall9:43
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Foligno – Haula – DeBrusk8:40
xG 0.04–0.37 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – McAvoy7:23
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Reilly – McAvoy2:14
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reilly – Clifton12:03
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:17
xG 0.98–0.27 (79%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube7:20
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
- Richardson – Lewis – Ruzicka6:02
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk14:26
xG 0.52–1.16 (31%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov15:13
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:02
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Tanev – Kylington13:54
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).