Sat, Dec 11, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 114 | 17 | 331 |
| EDM | 010 | 14 | 09 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 6:19CARNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 10:11EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 17:16CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:25EDMZack Kassian: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:05EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:19CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:55CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Trocheck – Svechnikov10:14
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi9:39
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Necas – Jarvis12:26
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho8:32
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Slavin19:31
xG 1.36–0.38 (78%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Skjei – Chatfield15:26
xG 0.85–0.41 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Skjei – Bear2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Foegele – McLeod6:23
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:10
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:59
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Hyman – Yamamoto – McLeod4:52
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard16:48
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Ceci – Lagesson10:29
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse6:41
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).