Sat, Dec 11, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 014 | 010 | 111 | 135 |
| SJS | 16 | 111 | 08 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30SJSTomas HertlAssists: Timo Meier, Alexander Barabanov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 16:28SJSErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Alexander Barabanov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 8:26DALMichael RafflAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:24SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:45SJSJasper Weatherby: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:46DALDenis Gurianov: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:25SJSMatt Nieto: Holding2 min
- P2 16:28DALAlexander Radulov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Raffl – Kero2:49
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Robertson4:22
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Faksa – Raffl – Robertson5:39
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hakanpää14:36
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen16:34
xG 0.79–0.67 (54%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:57
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 23–15goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Dahlen – Gregor9:30
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Meier – Gadjovich – Weatherby2:29
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto8:59
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov9:54
xG 0.46–0.84 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Middleton16:03
xG 1.27–0.61 (67%)attempts 22–19goals 1–1
- Burns – Ferraro15:04
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Simek9:22
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).