Sat, Dec 11, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Seattle Kraken 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 413 | 07 | 11 | 528 |
| SEA | 012 | 110 | 39 | 01 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:13CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 11:40CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Max Domi, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 13:46SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:43CBJMax DomiAssists: Jack Roslovic, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 19:34CBJMax DomiAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 3:42SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Mark Giordano · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 4:04SEAMorgan GeekieAssists: Mason Appleton, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 15:54SEAVince DunnAssists: Adam Larsson, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- OT 0:55CBJJake BeanGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:52SEAAlexander True: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:43SEAAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:28CBJGabriel Carlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Danforth – Sillinger10:25
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Texier – Robinson11:43
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Hofmann – Jenner – Bjorkstrand15:23
xG 0.94–1.10 (46%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
- Voracek – Domi – Roslovic9:42
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlsson – Bayreuther8:56
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke18:38
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 1–3
- Werenski – Bean22:03
xG 1.09–1.28 (46%)attempts 27–22goals 2–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Wennberg – Appleton11:50
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Donato – True9:16
xG 0.25–0.26 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Eberle – Schwartz – McCann15:01
xG 1.09–1.27 (46%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Tanev – Geekie10:06
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Oleksiak16:32
xG 1.16–0.42 (74%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Fleury – Lauzon9:24
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Lauzon3:11
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).