Sun, Dec 12, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 011 | 114 | 13 | 339 |
| STL | 07 | 111 | 16 | 01 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32ANABuddy RobinsonAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 6:43STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Nathan Walker, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 7:40STLNathan WalkerAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:29ANATroy TerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 3:58ANATroy TerryGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:58STLScott Perunovich: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:45ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- OT 3:58STLScott Perunovich: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Terry – Steel14:00
xG 0.99–0.26 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Robinson9:39
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström13:19
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras11:13
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson19:08
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Benoit11:56
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:14
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Sundqvist – Walker10:30
xG 0.39–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Saad – Brown11:10
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Peca – Joshua3:06
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev14:41
xG 0.38–0.93 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Perunovich10:20
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola22:11
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Scandella – Krug17:41
xG 0.48–1.28 (27%)attempts 8–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).