Sun, Dec 12, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 4, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 113 | 16 | 427 |
| VGK | 214 | 215 | 27 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Max Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:54MINNico SturmAssists: Alex Goligoski, Brandon Duhaime · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:15VGKEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P1 19:59MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 0:09MINNick BjugstadAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 5:46VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 13:52VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 1:22MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–4
- P3 4:42VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–5
- P3 19:32VGKAlex PietrangeloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:17MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:58VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:39MINMathew Dumba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21VGKEvgenii Dadonov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52VGKNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:52MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:52VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:35VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:41VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:33MINJordie Benn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:40MINAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:04VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Kolesar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:23
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm8:26
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Rask – Gaudreau – Fiala7:19
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:50
xG 0.33–0.71 (32%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Dumba13:27
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Benn – Dumba2:13
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon12:57
xG 0.98–1.24 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:40
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Janmark – Roy8:05
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Carrier – Amadio – Kolesar5:54
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:18
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Theodore10:52
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Hague10:55
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore5:29
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).