Tue, Dec 14, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 1, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 19 | 012 | 127 |
| PHI | 213 | 39 | 18 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14PHITravis SanheimAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:35PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 6:07PHIJustin BraunAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 6:43NJDP.K. SubbanAssists: Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 16:16PHICam AtkinsonSHAssists: Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 18:20PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 7:09PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Claude Giroux, Max Willman · Snap, 0.24 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:11NJDTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:11PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:11PHICam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:24PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:53PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 17:56PHITravis Konecny: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBastian – McLeod – Sharangovich9:12
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Zacha – Studenic – Hughes5:32
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Vesey – Boqvist – Studenic2:34
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johnsson – Mercer8:33
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBahl – Smith4:08
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Subban – Bahl6:01
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Subban – Smith3:21
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Laughton – Konecny14:02
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Lindblom5:35
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Brown – Lindblom – MacEwen3:25
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Willman4:31
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim15:39
xG 1.09–0.36 (75%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
- Braun – Provorov16:02
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Yandle – Connauton13:20
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).