Tue, Apr 19, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 17 | 17 | 02 | 0 | 221 |
| NSH | 09 | 29 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:23NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:09NSHMatt DucheneUnassisted · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 15:13CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 6:40CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 2. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 3. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 5. NSH Mikael Granlund scored
- 6. CGY Tyler Toffoli stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:48NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:13CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:28CGYNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04NSHMatt Duchene: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:02CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 12:17NSHTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:11CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- OT 3:48CGYDillon Dube: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie6:16
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk14:58
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Dube7:36
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane9:23
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:18
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington16:10
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:43
xG 0.37–0.70 (34%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Kunin9:42
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:38
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot13:05
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Glass – Tolvanen – Tomasino5:01
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier18:02
xG 1.01–0.53 (66%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning10:09
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro17:44
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).