Tue, Dec 14, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 19 | 310 | 429 |
| DAL | 010 | 112 | 012 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:57DALRiley DamianiAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 17:03STLColton ParaykoAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 2:07STLJustin FaulkGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 11:33STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 18:43STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:10DALTyler Seguin: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:14STLDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:20DALJacob Peterson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:24DALRadek Faksa: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 18:10DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Saad – Brown10:48
xG 1.09–0.51 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Peca – Joshua – Toropchenko7:25
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Walker12:30
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev12:12
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Scandella9:27
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug17:11
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Parayko – Mikkola17:10
xG 1.07–1.34 (44%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Faksa – Raffl – Dellandrea7:11
xG 0.02–0.03 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Peterson – Damiani2:20
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl3:01
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Robertson11:55
xG 0.73–0.91 (44%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:20
xG 1.08–0.50 (68%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen15:55
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Hakanpää – Lindell2:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).