Tue, Dec 14, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 212 | 18 | 427 |
| WPG | 114 | 113 | 09 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:04WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 11:30BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 12:36WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:21BUFRasmus DahlinGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 11:55BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Olofsson, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:42WPGKristian Vesalainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33BUFRobert Hagg: Holding2 min
- P2 1:45BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:05BUFCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:14WPGNate Schmidt: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Bjork11:12
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Hayden – Asplund8:46
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson9:56
xG 0.99–1.31 (43%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Okposo – Murray – Cozens12:49
xG 0.04–0.58 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Jokiharju2:45
xG 0.26–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Bryson2:39
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Butcher9:27
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Dubois10:27
xG 1.65–0.83 (67%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Connor13:35
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Vesalainen7:07
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Connor – Dubois2:31
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk15:31
xG 1.77–1.04 (63%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu2:36
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley10:02
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).