Tue, Dec 14, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Rangers 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 17 | 114 | 228 |
| COL | 212 | 17 | 112 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:11COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 10:36NYRRyan StromeAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 18:45COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:58NYRJulien GauthierAssists: Dryden Hunt, Barclay Goodrow · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 19:23COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:42NYRPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P1 17:41NYRKevin Rooney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:22COLAndre Burakovsky: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:39NYRDryden Hunt: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25COLJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:45NYRRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:45COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:45NYRMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P3 7:31NYRKaapo Kakko: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:03NYRLibor Hajek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko8:38
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière5:58
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin11:04
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Rooney6:14
xG 0.18–0.85 (17%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller14:23
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hajek8:11
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren14:31
xG 0.46–1.19 (28%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:30
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Jost – O'Connor – Newhook3:21
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Compher – Nichushkin4:58
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Helm – Aube-Kubel – Maltsev2:50
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Makar4:50
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson8:26
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Girard – Makar10:13
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).